VOLUME 13 NUMBER 2 (July to December 2020)

PSL%202019 vol12-no02-p133-138-Mikita%20and%20Padlan

Philipp. Sci. Lett. 2020 13 (2) 158-173
available online: October 31, 2020

*Corresponding author
Email Address: abel_lucido@dlsu.edu.ph
Date received: February 28, 2020
Date revised: August 27, 2020
Date accepted: October 3, 2020


Prevention of H5N6 outbreaks in the Philippines using optimal control

Abel G. Lucido*1,2,3, Robert Smith?4, and Angelyn R. Lao2,3

1Department of Science & Technology
      - Science Education Institute, Bicutan, Taguig, Philippines
2Mathematics and Statistics Department
      De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue,
      0922 Manila, Philippines
3Center for Complexity and Emerging Technologies,
      De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue,
      0922 Manila, Philippines
3Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine,
      University of Ottawa, 150 Louis-Pasteur Pvt Ottawa,
      ON K1N 6N5, Canada
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N6) is a mutated virus of Influenza A (H5N1) and a new emerging infection that recently caused an outbreak in the Philippines. The 2017 H5N6 outbreak resulted in a depopulation of 667,184 domestic birds. We incorporate half-saturated incidence and optimal control in our mathematical models in order to investigate three intervention strategies against H5N6: isolation with treatment, vaccination, and modified culling. We determine the direction of the bifurcation when R0=1 and show that all the models exhibit forward bifurcation. We apply the theory of optimal control and perform numerical simulations to compare the consequences and implementation cost of utilizing different intervention strategies in the poultry population. Despite the challenges of applying each control strategy, we show that culling both infected and susceptible birds is an effective control strategy in limiting an outbreak, with a consequence of losing a large number of birds; the isolation-treatment strategy has the potential to prevent an outbreak, but it highly depends on rapid isolation and successful treatment used; while vaccination alone is not enough to control the outbreak.

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