VOLUME 18 NUMBER 1 (January to June 2025)

A probabilistic approach to risk assessment for anticipatory planning

Anticipatory planning is important for the success of a project. It requires consideration of various scenarios and identifying possible disruptions. This research proposes a probabilistic network-based risk assessment tool that systematically identifies project disruptions and quantifies their associated risks. The proposed method involves two major phases: 1. characterization of activities and 2. modeling of risks. For the first phase, the component activities and the possible disruptions are identified, arranged chronologically, and categorized by the factor they utilize. Activities crucial to the success of the project are identified using backcasting techniques. For the second phase, the information collated from the first phase is used to simulate the duration of the entire project and the risk associated with each activity. The proposed method was implemented in planning an online seminar to demonstrate its viability. The result suggests that the formulated risk index is a good predictor of the risk associated with the activities.