VOLUME 18 (Supplement)

Age-structured modeling of tuberculosis transmission in the Philippines

The Philippines is one of the countries with a high number of tuberculosis (TB) cases in the world according to the World Health Organization (WHO). TB incidence in the Philippines has remained consistently high over the years, with an estimated 561,000 incident TB cases in 2020. Around 18% of these cases were recorded among children aged 0–14 years, 72% among Filipinos aged 15–64 years, and the remaining 10% among older adults aged 65 years and above. In this work, a mathematical model with age groupings in the susceptible class—children, the working-age group, and older adults—was developed to describe TB transmission in the Philippines. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the parameters that would pose a significant effect on the model output. Then, key parameter values of the model were estimated using the collected Philippine TB incidence data from 2005-2020. Moreover, the End TB strategy goal initiated by the WHO was assessed to determine mitigating strategies appropriate for the TB transmission in the Philippines Results show that transmission rates among susceptible children and working-age adults affect TB incidence more than the transmission rate among susceptible older adults. Furthermore, programs targeting individuals with latent TB infection who are more likely to develop active TB in the future should be strongly strengthened and prioritized.