VOLUME 19 NUMBER 1 (January to June 2026)

Rapid economy-wide appraisal of airport deconcentration: An Excel-based MRIO sensitivity study for the Philippines

This paper introduces a low-cost, Excel/VBA multi-regional input–output tool designed to stress-test the reallocation of airport slots from Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) to secondary hubs. An activity-conserving scaling method converts an NAIA reduction in air transport into recipient-specific percentage changes in activity, with conservative adjustments to support activities. Single, dual, and tri-split scenarios are assessed using peso-per-1% shift (national/regional sensitivity) and GRDP-Normalized Shift Intensity (GNSI) (local exposure) metrics. The results suggest that a CRK-led reallocation results in the least national loss, followed by CRK+CEB. Configurations that involve Davao deepen short-term losses, and high GNSI signals local capacity needs. The workflow is transparent, reproducible, and runnable on standard office machines, thereby enhancing evidence-based policymaking, resilient infrastructure planning, sustainable transport design, regional development, and disaster risk reduction. The method is easily adaptable to cold-chain policies, ports, and trucking windows, and it facilitates rapid triage and interagency collaboration during policy windows.